After determining the final candidates of twelfth Iran’s presidential election, the competition has started between six candidates who have been qualified. By looking at these six qualified candidates we can assume some kind of design for the following election.
First- The competition in this election would be like a dipole of supporters and opponents of the current government into two rows of three candidates. Reformists and Moderations have three candidates in this election; Eshagh Jahangiri the vice president of Hassan Rouhani’s government has appeared at the frontline of the supporters of the government of hope and thought, and has announced that he has come to this battle in order to help Rouhani. His perspicuity and power of speech can be the Trump card for supporting Hassan Rouhani. The second candidate, Mostafa Hashemi Taba, the vice president of Reformists government, even though had not come to the arena as a covering candidate but it is apparent that as a supporter of a government from Reformists, he will help Hassan Rouhani in this competition and the election debates.
Second- On the other side of the arena, it seems other three candidates will appear as supporters to help each other. Since months ago, there were some whispers about Ghalibaf-Raisi coalition for forming a coalition government, which seems that if Ebrahim Raisi wins the election, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will be his vice president. Although based on the survey GHalibaf’s chance for being the president is higher than Raisi, coalition between these two at the end is not unexpected, and Mostafa Mirsalim as a traditional Fundamentalist candidate despite being dissatisfied with how fundamentalists are choosing their final candidate, he will help Raisi and Ghalibaf in criticizing the performance of the current government.
Third- Therefore, it seems that in this election the dipole of supporters and opponents of the eleventh government can be summarized in a battle between two clergymen. Although, it has been shown that Ghalibaf is unpredictable, due to criticisms on his performance as the mayor, Raisi’s chance for being the Rouhani’s rival is much higher. However, by looking at records and performance of these two groups, one can say Rouhani’s supporters have a greater chance to win.
Finally- In comparison of Rouhani and Raisi, we can also say that Rouhani has a greater chance to win because of his past performance. Perspicuity, political background and performance and management records can help Hassan Rouhani in election debates in order to finish his rival’s job in this competition.
Published on 22.04.2017, Ghanoon Daily